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Congestion isn't likely to get better anytime soon - because we are our own worst enemies!

Courtesy of DRCOG



From: Highways and Transit: Leveling the Playing Field in Federal Transportation Policy Edward Beimborn and Robert Puentes (The Brookings Institute) December 2003
Automobile trips dominate the way we travel. Conventional wisdom assumes that this is the result of a fair competition between all transportation modes operating under the same federal policies and rules.
However, the conventional wisdom is wrong. Federal policies that govern highway and transit projects are not the same. In fact, these two modes, which federal law specifically expects to work together in the development of a balanced multi-modal system, are treated differently. This unlevel playing field has profound impacts on metropolitan America and on how cities, older suburbs, and newer suburbs grow and develop.
Imagine that the urban, or metropolitan, portion of the interstate highway system was built according to the same procedures as those used or proposed to build major transit systems.
The result would be:
Only 50 percent of the capital costs for major highways would be paid from federal sources rather than 80 or 90 percent. Cities would have to aggressively compete among one another for their highway funds based on the quality and justification of the proposed project. The rules for the competition would be subject to change without any input. Some states, cities, and metropolitan areas would never be able to build any highways even if there was a pervasive desire by the public and the local officials to do so. Only a few highway segments could begin construction in any year.
If major highways projects were built by the same rules as transit, highways would need a congressional “sponsor” who would secure an earmark by competing with other members for scarce funds. Cities unable to get an earmark would have fewer freeways. Local governments would have to demonstrate that they have sufficient funds to pay for their share of the costs of building the highways. They would also have to demonstrate that they would be able to operate and maintain these highways, as well as their existing highways, into the future.
A substantial portion of highway funding would likely have to come from local property taxes, local sales taxes, or local income taxes. Often there would be limited state contribution to the costs. In many instances, public referenda would have to be approved to get local authorization for project funding.
Also, highway projects would have to compete with police, fire, education, and other programs for funding. In times of budget shortages, highways could be closed completely or eliminated. The highway would need to be justified on an explicit measure of cost effectiveness. Agencies would have to specifically state how they would manage the land use impacts of their highways. Finally, intensive mandated studies would have to precede the project and would be subject to an independent review by the federal government and an open comparison to other projects.
In short, if the rules that apply to new transit projects were applied to highways, highway construction would be very difficult and subject to intense political scrutiny and debate. There would be fewer urban and suburban highways and the shape of metropolitan areas in the United States would be radically different. Lifestyles of Americans, their mobility, and the health of the economy would be different from what we now have.
A common theme in transportation is that transportation decisions are best made by local elected officials at the metropolitan level. Decisions on the future form and nature of the transportation system are best made by those who are most affected and by those who have the best understanding of day-to-day transportation problems.
Good local decisions require that various transportation options be compared equally and consistently on their merits. Local and metropolitan decision-makers should then be able to choose the best set or combination of transportation strategies that meet local views, values, and directions. Thus, local leaders should be able to pursue the best transportation alternatives for their communities, rather than the most easily funded and approved alternative.
Unfortunately, this has not been the case in national transportation policy. Transit and highway systems are treated differently in federal policy, law, and regulations. Local governments are faced with major difficulties in obtaining funds for new transit systems. At the same time, highway funding can be obtained with relative ease. This unlevel playing field can distort decisions at the local level.


From:
Why Traffic Congestion Will Inevitably Get Worse Everywhere
Anthony Downs (The Brookings Institute)
March 21, 2001

Most Americans consider traffic congestion as one of the most serious social problems they face in daily life, especially in fast-growth suburban areas. No doubt, it has been getting worse. But there is no way to prevent traffic congestion from intensifying even more in the future. This is a problem without a solution, at least no solution the American people will accept.
In some respects, perception is worse than reality. The actual average time spent commuting on each trip has not increased much over the past 12 years, except in a few large metropolitan areas. Average commuting time was 18.2 minutes in 1983, 19.7 in 1990, and 20.7 in 1995 -- a rise of only 2.5 minutes, or 13.7 percent, in 12 years. But average distance rose from 8.5 miles to 10.6 in 1990 and 11.6 in 1995.
We hear horrifying estimates of how much time commuters waste in traffic. The Texas Transportation Institute says that Los Angeles area drivers wasted 82 hours per driver in 1997, the most in the nation. But spreading those 82 hours over 240 working days and 2 trips per day amounts to losing 10 1/4 min. each way each day. The average loss in 68 areas was 4 1/4 min. per trip. A similar analysis of the $72 billion annual excess cost of delay in those 68 areas combined estimated by the Texas Transportation Institute shows that, on a per commuting trip basis, that cost is 21 cents in cash outlays and 4 1/4 minutes of time lost at an imputed wage cost of $24.56 per hour.
Yet there is no doubt that congestion is impeding movement during much of the day in regions like the San Francisco Bay Area, affecting efficiency and the cost of living there. Nevertheless, the American people will not accept any of the tactics that might actually reduce peak-hour congestion. Hugely escalating the cost of driving through higher gas taxes or other fees is a political non-starter. Improving public transit will not lure enough Americans out of their cars to cut congestion much.

Once peak-hour congestion has appeared on major roads, widening them only temporarily speeds traffic there. Drivers soon converge on the improved roads from other routes they had been using, or from earlier or later time periods they had been traveling in to avoid the rush, or from other modes like public transit they had been using. That “triple convergence” soon returns peak-hour congestion on the improved roads back to the same level it was before they were widened.
This does not mean there are no benefits from widening heavily congested roads. Doing so may reduce the length of congested peak hours, and may move more vehicles per hour during those peaks. But it will not eliminate the existence of crawling traffic during peak periods. Similarly, it may often be desirable to build more roads to cope with population increases. But in the long run, improving roads often attracts even more population and other growth that eventually tends again to overload those roads.
Economists have long recommended charging high peak-hour tolls to ration scarce highway space during rush hours. But U.S. politicians have unanimously rejected that strategy for two reasons.
First, most drivers would consider such tolls as just another tax on something they can do without monetary cost now.
Second, most drivers would regard high enough peak-hour tolls to reduce congestion then to low levels as unfairly benefiting wealthy drivers who could always pay such tolls at the expense of poorer ones who would be forced to drive at other times.
Perhaps HOT lanes (high occupancy toll lanes) on major expressways onto which single drivers could buy their way during peak periods could provide some high-speed channels even during peak hours without forcing all other drivers off those roads during those hours. But HOT lanes would not eliminate peak-hour traffic jams for the majority of drivers.
In short, no remedies Americans are willing to adopt can prevent peak-hour congestion from getting worse as future populations rise in the nation’s metropolitan areas.

In reality, traffic congestion is essentially a balancing mechanism that enables people to pursue certain specific objectives they value other than minimizing commuting or driving time.
Employers want most firms to use similar work periods during each day so workers can communicate with each other for economic efficiency, but that requires most people to travel to and from their jobs at the same times.
Employers also want to operate mainly in low-density workplaces, widely scattered across each metro area. Most households want to
(1) have access to a wide range of choices of where to work and live, especially in multi-earner households,
(2) combine multiple purposes into individual trips,
(3) live in relatively low-density communities, and
(4) separate their own dwellings spatially -- and within public school districts – from families with lesser incomes and lower social status.
It is not possible for people to pursue all of these objectives effectively without generating a lot of traffic congestion, especially during peak travel times. Yet most of us will endure a lot of congestion before giving up any of these objectives. The congestion we encounter is bad enough to make us complain loudly, but not bad enough to make us change our behavior.
Thus, increasing traffic congestion is an inescapable part of living in modern metropolitan areas everywhere.
Peak-hour congestion is actually worse in most other parts of the world than in America. It is a mark of rising prosperity around the globe. If congestion gets bad enough, more people will react by relocating their homes closer to their jobs or vice-versa, or by moving to smaller metropolitan areas. To believe that future congestion will be remedied by adopting more public transit or any other set of remedies is a myth.
Consequently, my advice is that everyone should get used to being stuck in traffic some of the time. You should get a climate-controlled car with a stereo radio and tape deck and CD player, a hands-free telephone, a fax machine and even a microwave oven, and commute each day with someone you really like. Make it a part of your leisure life!
We are Our Own Worst Enemies!

From: The Need for Regional Congestion Policies
Anthony Downs (The Brookings Institute)
February 2004
A. The Complexity of Regional Approaches
Tackling problems at the regional level in a democracy involves extremely complex and difficult activities—more difficult than those required to operate our present fragmented governance system. Many more divergent interests must be consulted and persuaded to cooperate than is the case with local governments acting separately. So the politics of achieving consensus on effective policies is much more complex and time-consuming at the regional level. Coping with problems at the regional level also involves technically more complex policies than those confined to the local level. Hence the personal and leadership skills and technical abilities required to make regionalism work are hard to find.
Simply because a transportation plan is regionally developed by representatives from specific parts of each metropolitan area does not necessarily mean they will arrive at socially equitable distributions of the funds they are responsible for allocating.
Just because a person living in one part of a region, and chosen to represent that part on a regional agency, is now serving on a agency with region-wide responsibilities is no guarantee that this person will actually adopt a truly regional perspective, rather than narrowly representing the parochial interests of his or her own district.
For one thing, newly developing suburban areas often have transportation needs that differ radically from those of central cities. While some suburban areas clamor for increases in road and transit capacity, central cities often desperately need maintenance and renewal of existing facilities. However, since suburban portions of most metropolitan areas have larger representation on regional bodies such as MPOs, they are able to craft regional transportation plans that focus on expanded and new transportation infrastructure, rather than rehabilitation or repairs.
Indeed, a 1994 study found that nearly 8 out of 10 center cities were underrepresented on the boards of their local MPOs in terms of voting power. That is, the voting strength of the center city was lower than the city’s percentage share of MPO area population.
Further, very few MPOs grant any type of voting power to non-geographic entities such as transit agencies, port authorities, or environmental agencies. As a result of these distortions, Martin Wachs and Jennifer Dill believe that:
“Transportation funds have almost always been more available from both state and federal sources for capital investments—new roads and transit lines—than for maintenance, repair, or system operations. Thus, we believe that the transportation system has been “overcapitalized.” More money has been spent on new facilities and equipment than would have been the case had monies been fungible between capital, operations, and maintenance applications.”
The main beneficiaries of new roads and transit lines have been suburbanites, who have higher average incomes than city dwellers, the main users—and fare-payers—on public transit systems.
IV. Prospects and Outlook for Regional Anti-Congestion Agencies
In almost every U.S. metropolitan area, attempts to carry out effective regional anticongestion tactics will be met with resistance. Any organizations created for this purpose could work well only if they exercised authority and powers now divided among many local and state government agencies, but most officials in those existing agencies strongly oppose any reduction in their present powers. Local governments are particularly loathe to yield any control over their land uses to outsiders. Indeed, the main function of many U.S. local governments is to control land-use patterns so as to benefit their existing homeowning residents by maintaining or increasing the market values of local homes. Yet many tactics for reducing peak-hour congestion would require shifting at least some local power over land uses to a regional agency.

The Metropolitan Planning Organization structure has accomplished this goal to a great extent concerning the planning and construction of major infrastructure investments. But the authority of MPOs does not extend to operating those investments, or to controlling other types of anti-congestion policies, as noted earlier. Hence additional regional efforts are necessary to make use of all potentially effective anti-congestion tactics.
The most important actor in the potential development of effective regional agencies is the state.
State governments encompass entire metropolitan areas or large parts thereof; hence they should not exhibit the same narrow parochialism as local governments. In most metropolitan areas, the territory of regional agencies would lie entirely within a single state. And only state governments have the constitutional authority to create such regional agencies. Unfortunately, most state governments have been unwilling to create such regional agencies to combat traffic congestion. In fact, most states have not embraced federal transportation efforts and devolved sufficient powers and responsibilities to metropolitan areas.
One reason is that such an agency would have to be given powers that are now in part exercised by other state agencies—particularly state DOTs.
Officials in those other agencies would be unhappy about giving up any of their present powers. In addition, no state legislature is willing to incur the wrath of most local governments unless the legislators have strong incentives to do so.
State legislators are themselves elected from local districts. They are often linked personally and politically to existing local governments. Moreover,
since state representatives are seldom elected from districts large enough to encompass an entire metropolitan area, their viewpoints are also quite parochial.
At the same time, certain positive gains might motivate state legislators to establish regional anti-congestion agencies over the objections of local governments. The main gain would be in reducing traffic congestion in the long run, but that gain would be spread over residents and firms in all parts of the metropolitan area. For each beneficiary, it would be only a small part of the general benefits received from all state government actions. Hence few beneficiaries would decide how to vote among state legislative candidates on the basis of this issue alone.
In contrast, the potential loss of local sovereignty from the creation of such regional agencies would be seen by many local officials as a major threat to their welfare. So how each state legislator voted on this issue would heavily influence the amount of support he or she received at the next election from local officials. In the minds of most state legislators, the potential loss of support caused by their favoring creation of strong regional agencies would outweigh the gains from reducing traffic congestion.
This does not mean states will never create effective regional anti-congestion agencies, simply that such actions will be rare. Even when they occur, some resistance will persist within both state and local governments. Underlying that resistance is the fundamental belief among many citizens that reducing traffic congestion is far less important than pursuing other social or personal goals. Therefore, if reducing congestion means they must change behavior they have cherished for other reasons, they may prefer to endure congestion—while, of course, still complaining loudly about it.
What would cause the relevant public officials to adopt regional tactics in spite of the above drawbacks?
First, traffic congestion must become so widespread and so intolerable
that a large fraction of the metropolitan area’s citizenry regards it as a crisis.
Second, key state and local officials—especially the governor—must believe that carrying out regional anti-congestion tactics is essential to remedying this crisis.
Third, there must be some credible institutional structure available through which to accomplish those regional tactics.
These elements are discussed below.
The Need for a Crisis. In a few metropolitan areas, peak-hour congestion is so bad that reducing it is widely perceived as the central issue facing local governments. Hence the governor and state legislators are strongly motivated to appear to be doing something about this problem in order to be reelected. Otherwise, they are unlikely to act effectively, since the political leaders in a democracy fear asking the citizenry to make fundamental changes in established institutions or behavior. People can be induced to do so without enormous resistance only if they believe they must to alleviate a crisis that is either already present or imminent. Elected officials are in turn unwilling to ask the public to make basic changes unless they believe the public thinks itself threatened by such a crisis.
Most such crises involve some sudden disruption of normal life. They must pose serious, obvious, and immediate threats to the welfare of a large percentage of the population. But peak-hour traffic congestion does not change dramatically overnight; rather, it gets a little worse each day. Since each commuter’s route differs from those traveled by most others, people do not all encounter the same degree of congestion simultaneously. So there is no widespread common perception concerning just how bad traffic congestion has become as of any particular date.
In 1999, Georgia Governor Roy Barnes was faced with such a crisis in the Atlanta metropolitan area. By the end of the 1990’s, only the Los Angeles and San Francisco metropolitan area drivers experienced more congestion each day than those in Atlanta.
Air pollution had become so severe that the region was faced with the loss of millions of dollars in federal transportation funds as mandated by the federal Clean Air Act. As a result, the 1999 governor’s race in Georgia was dominated by discussions of growth and transportation where Barnes made finding a metropolitan solution a cornerstone of his campaign. After his election, he created the Georgia Regional Transportation Authority (GRTA) and gave it broad authority to improve air quality, curb sprawl, and address traffic congestion by, among other things, giving it the ability to veto state and local transportation plans.
But generally, without any sudden crisis to galvanize public officials into action, they are reluctant to ask citizens to make the painful changes necessary to alleviate peak-hour congestion. True, after congestion has become bad enough long enough, more and more citizens and their political leaders may decide it has passed some invisible threshold of acceptability. If enough citizens do, some elected officials will propose the kinds of actions described in this brief.
The Need for a Belief That Regional Remedies Are Essential.
Even when congestion reaches crisis stage in metropolitan areas, key officials must be convinced that strong regional agencies are essential to cutting traffic congestion. Otherwise they will prefer other remedies not requiring such drastic behavioral changes. The belief that regional remedies are essential is not widespread.
A critical function of public-private anti-congestion groups is to nurture and strengthen this belief in the minds of relevant public and private leaders. This is probably best approached by emphasizing the inadequacy of existing congestion-related policies formulated and carried out by highly fragmented local governments. Making this point will also require linking traffic congestion problems to the nature of land-uses and land-use decisions controlled by fragmented governments.
The general public needs to become more aware of the fact that traffic congestion is closely tied to the prevalence of low-density settlement patterns encouraged by local government land-use planning decisions—and by the public’s own settlement preferences.
The Need for Credible Regional Institutions.
Even if the first two conditions exist, one or more credible institutional structures for implementing regional congestion remedies must also be available in the metropolitan area concerned. Possible forms of such structures were discussed above. This condition implies that all key segments of the metropolitan area must lie within a single state, because almost all regional bodies with effective action powers can only be created by state legislatures. If a metropolitan area is in two or more states, it will be extremely difficult to create any institutional structures able to carry out anti-congestion tactics throughout the region. Rivalries among political leaders and agencies in different states and the legal difficulties of creating interstate compacts will greatly complicate that task.
This condition also implies that both regional structures and the widespread belief that they are essential should be created before traffic congestion produces a crisis. Then when such a crisis appears, regional policy responses can be launched immediately. That will permit effective action to start before public concern with the crisis wanes. This is critical, because the public’s attention rarely remains focused on any one issue very long. Therefore, persons promoting effective anti-congestion tactics should start building a foundation for regional responses well before congestion reaches maximum intensity.
In the long run, severe peak-hour traffic congestion can only be effectively combated with the aid of at least some regional anti-congestion tactics. But it is extremely difficult to create the political support and institutional structures necessary for such tactics. To do so, proponents of these tactics will have to overcome massive resistance from local governments, existing state agencies, and a majority of citizens who do not want to stop commuting alone in their cars.
To accomplish this task they will have to act in advance of any widely perceived congestion crises. Achieving success also demands persisting—perhaps for many years—in spite of continual failure. After all, not one of the more than 340 metropolitan areas in the United States has yet adopted a comprehensive, regionally based strategy for attacking traffic congestion, insofar as I know. This does not mean that all efforts to achieve a regional approach should be abandoned as hopeless. But it does mean that persons attempting such efforts must be prepared to endure failure for a long time. Their motto must be, “Never give up!”
VI. Conclusion
Because traffic congestion is essentially a regional phenomenon, regional
approaches are necessary to coping with it as effectively as possible. Up to now in the United States, the complexity of such approaches, and their conflict with deeply-embedded attitudes favoring fragmented local governance over land uses, have both impeded effective anti-congestion policies. The time has come not only to reexamine these obstacles to effective action, but to overcome them by adopting truly regional policies dealing with key aspects of the many forces affecting traffic congestion.
From: Traffic: Why It’s Getting Worse, What Government Can Do Anthony Downs (The Brookings Institute) January 2004
Rising traffic congestion is an inescapable condition in large and growing metropolitan areas across the world, from Los Angeles to Tokyo, from Cairo to Sao Paolo. Peak-hour traffic congestion is an inherent result of the way modern societies operate. It stems from the widespread desires of people to pursue certain goals that inevitably overload existing roads and transit systems every day. But everyone hates traffic congestion, and it keeps getting worse, in spite of attempted remedies. Commuters are often frustrated by policymakers’ inability to do anything about the problem, which poses a significant public policy challenge.
THE PRINCIPLE OF TRIPLE CONVERGENCE
The least understood aspect of peak-hour traffic congestion is the principle of triple convergence, which I discussed in the original version of Stuck in Traffic (Brookings/Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, 1992). This phenomenon occurs because traffic flows in any region’s overall transportation networks form almost automatically self-adjusting relationships among different routes, times, and modes.
For example, a major commuting expressway might be so heavily congested each morning that traffic crawls for at least thirty minutes. If that expressway’s capacity were doubled overnight, the next day’s traffic would flow rapidly because the same number of drivers would have twice as much road space. But soon word would spread that this particular highway was no longer congested. Drivers who had once used that road before and after the peak hour to avoid congestion would shift back into the peak period. Other drivers who had been using alternative routes would shift onto this more convenient expressway.
Even some commuters who had been using the subway or trains would start driving on this road during peak periods. Within a short time, this triple convergence onto the expanded road during peak hours would make the road as congested as it was before its expansion.
Experience shows that if a road is part of a larger transportation network within a region, peak-hour congestion cannot be eliminated for long on a congested road by expanding that road’s capacity. The triple convergence principle does not mean that expanding a congested road’s capacity has no benefits. After expansion, the road can carry more vehicles per hour than before, no matter how congested it is, so more people can travel on it during those more desirable periods. Also, the periods of maximum congestion may be shorter, and congestion on alternative routes may be lower. Those are all benefits, but that road will still experience some period of maximum congestion daily.
TRIPLE CONVERGENCE AND OTHER PROPOSALS
Triple convergence affects the practicality of other suggested remedies to traffic congestion. An example is staggered work hours. In theory, if a certain number of workers are able to commute during less crowded parts of the day, that will free up space on formerly congested roads. But once traffic moves faster on those roads during peak hours, that will attract other drivers from other routes, other times, and other modes where conditions have not changed to shift onto the improved roads. Soon the removal of the staggered working-hour drivers will be fully offset by convergence.
The same thing will happen if more workers become telecommuters and work at home, or if public transit capacity is expanded on off-road routes that parallel a congested expressway. This is why building light rail systems or even new subways rarely reduces peak-hour traffic congestion. In Portland, where the light rail system doubled in size in the 1990s, and in Dallas, where a new light rail system opened, congestion did not decline for long after these systems were up and running. Only road pricing or higher gasoline taxes are exempt from the principle of triple convergence.
HOW POPULATION GROWTH CAN SWAMP TRANSPORTATION CAPACITY
A ground transportation system’s equilibria can also be affected by big changes in the region’s population or economic activity. If a region’s population is growing rapidly, as in Southern California or Florida, any expansions of major expressway capacity may soon be swamped by more vehicles generated by the added population. This result is strengthened because America’s vehicle population has been increasing even faster than its human population.
From 1980 to 2000, 1.2 more automotive vehicles were added to the vehicle population of the United States for every 1.0 person added to the human population (though this ratio declined to 1 to 1 in the 1990s). The nation’s human population is expected to grow by around 60 million by 2020—possibly adding another 60 million vehicles to our national stock. That is why prospects for reducing peak-hour traffic congestion in the future are dim indeed.
Shifts in economic activity also affect regional congestion. During the internet and telecommunications boom of the late 1990s, congestion in the San Francisco Bay Area intensified immensely. After the economic “bubble” burst in 2000, congestion fell markedly without any major change in population. Thus, severe congestion can be a sign of strong regional prosperity, just as reduced congestion can signal an economic downturn.
The most obvious reason traffic congestion has increased everywhere is population growth. In a wealthy nation, more people mean more vehicles. But total vehicle mileage traveled has grown much faster than population. From 1980 to 2000, the total population of the United States rose 24 percent, but total vehicle miles traveled grew 80 percent because of more intensive use of each vehicle. The number of vehicles per 1,000 persons rose 14 percent and the number of miles driven per vehicle rose 24 percent. Even without any population gain in those two decades, miles driven would have risen 47 percent.
One reason people drove their vehicles farther is that a combination of declining real gas prices (corrected for inflation) and more miles per gallon caused the real cost of each mile driven to fall 54 percent from 1980 to 2000. That helped raise the fraction of U.S. households owning cars from 86 percent in 1983 to 92 percent in 1995.
Furthermore, American road building lagged far behind increases in vehicle travel. Urban lane-miles rose by 37 percent, versus an 80 percent increase in miles traveled. As a result, the amount of daily traffic that was congested in the 75 areas analyzed in studies by the Texas Transportation Institute went from 16 percent in 1982 to 34 percent in 2001.
Another factor in road congestion is accidents and incidents, which some experts believe cause half of all traffic congestion. From 1980 to 2000, the absolute number of accidents each year has remained amazingly constant, and the annual number of traffic deaths in the United States fell 18 percent, in spite of the great rise in vehicle miles traveled.
So accidents could only have caused more congestion because roads were more crowded, and each accident may now cause longer back-ups than before. Incidents are non-accident causes of delay, such as stalled cars, road repairs, overturned vehicles, and bad weather. No one knows how many incidents occur, but it is a much greater number than accidents. And the number of incidents probably rises along with total driving. So that could have added to greater congestion, and will in the future.
LOW-DENSITY SETTLEMENTS
Another crucial factor contributing to traffic congestion is the desire of most Americans to live in low-density settlements. In 1999, the National Association of Homebuilders asked 2,000 randomly selected households whether they would rather buy a $150,000 townhouse in an urban setting that was close to public transportation, work, and shopping or a larger, detached single-family home in an outlying suburban area, where distances to work, public transportation, and shopping were longer. Eighty-three percent of respondents chose the larger, farther-out suburban home. At the same time, new workplaces have been spreading out in low-density areas in most metropolitan regions.
Past studies, including one published in 1977 by Boris S. Pushkarev and Jeffery M. Zupan, have shown that public transit works best where gross residential densities are above 4,200 persons per square mile; relatively dense housing is clustered close to transit stations or stops; and large numbers of jobs are concentrated in relatively compact business districts.
But in 2000, at least two thirds of all residents of U.S. urbanized areas lived in settlements with densities of under 4,000 persons per square mile. Those densities are too low for public transit to be effective. Hence their residents are compelled to rely on private vehicles for almost all of their travel, including trips during peak hours.

Recognizing this situation, many opponents of “sprawl” call for strong urban growth boundaries to constrain future growth into more compact, higher-density patterns, including greater reinvestment and increased densities in existing neighborhoods. But most residents of those neighborhoods vehemently oppose raising densities, and most American regions already have densities far too low to support much public transit. So this strategy would not significantly reduce future traffic congestion.
Living with congestion.
The only feasible way to accommodate excess demand for roads during peak periods is to have people wait in line. That means traffic congestion, which is an absolutely essential mechanism for American regions—and most other metropolitan regions throughout the world—to cope with excess demands for road space during peak hours each day.
Although congestion can seem intolerable, the alternatives would be even worse. Peak-hour congestion is the balancing mechanism that makes it possible for Americans to pursue other goals they value, including working or sending their children to school at the same time as their peers, living in low density settlements, and having a wide choice of places to live and work.
CONCLUSION
Peak-hour traffic congestion in almost all large and growing metropolitan regions around the world is here to stay. In fact, it is almost certain to get worse during at least the next few decades, mainly because of rising populations and wealth.
This will be true no matter what public and private policies are adopted to combat congestion. But this outcome should not be regarded as a mark of social failure or misguided policies. In fact, traffic congestion often results from economic prosperity and other types of success. Although traffic congestion is inevitable, there are ways to slow the rate at which it intensifies. Several tactics could do that effectively, especially if used in concert, but nothing can eliminate peak-hour traffic congestion from large metropolitan regions here and around the world. Only serious economic recessions—which are hardly desirable—can even forestall an increase.
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