Highway Expansion - Creating Tomorrows Transportation Problems Today

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The Road to Nowhere

The Truth about Highway Expansion as an Economic Driver 


Travel patterns along I-70 have already shifted to off-peak hours and off peak days in response to growing traffic congestion during peak periods. Thursdays and Fridays are already approaching weekend traffic volumes as Front Range Residents and Visitors alike attempt to avoid peak weekend travel hours. A weekend tolling program will provide an additional incentive for the peak spreading travel behavior that is already occuring.
 

By 2010 continued Front Range population growth will stress Colorado’s limited transportation infrastructure and increase peak travel times and congestion in the Mountain Corridor.  Transportation Management Activities will be necessary to make the most efficient use of our existing infrastructure.

 

Travel System and Travel Demand Management measures will increase the operational efficiency of the current four lane I-70 facility and at the same time increase Corridor motorists’ reliance on these efficiencies for access to recreational destinations in the Mountain Corridor. 

 

Recreational travelers, unlike commuters who must work specific hours, have a choice in making travel decisions.  This choice will continue to push recreational travelers away from current peak travel hours and effectively spread peak hours earlier and later in the day or night and further into weekdays, (especially Thursday’s, Friday’s and Monday’s).  Eastbound and westbound peak hours will further overlap on busy travel days. Recreational travelers may even push into adjacent seasons as Summer recreational trips extend into the Spring and Fall to avoid the prime season congestion. 

 

Highway expansion construction activities will occur mostly in the spring, summer and fall months due to weather and temperature restrictions.  Growing peak travel during these months will make avoidance of highway construction activities during peak travel periods especially difficult.  By 2010 it is very possible that "Off-Peak" travel days will be limited to Tuesday and Wednesday as Front Range Residents and Visitors work harder to avoid peak travel days and times and travel more on Mondays, Thursdays and Fridays.

 

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Even if peak period highway construction activity can be avoided, those who would have made off hour and weekday travel plans to avoid peak hour congestion, will now find considerable highway construction related congestion and delays in those off peak hours. 

 

Truck traffic attempting to avoid peak travel times, may wind up in construction related delays and closures, especially with nighttime construction work. 

 

The net result is that by 2010, we will be making the best and most efficient use possible of the existing four lane I-70 facility in the Mountain Corridor.  Front Range residents' lifestyles will have become more reliant than ever before on maintaining this operational efficiency to provide some minimum level of access to the mountains.  There will be no viable option to mainline I-70 travel when highway construction begins. 

 

Any highway expansion construction is likely to severely compromise access to the mountains for Front Range residents and visitors, no matter when the highway construction occurs. CDOT officials should not minimize the economic and lifestyle impacts that this will have on Colorado. 

 

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The outcome of this PEIS will have the greatest impact on those Colorado residents and visitors in their 40’s, 50’s and older.  Many of these folks are Baby Boomers who make up the primary consumer base for the western slope resort communities.  The 20 year PEIS time frame would suggest that we will not derive any substantial transportation benefit in the mountain corridor until the construction of the selected alternative is completed.  Those younger may be able to take advantage of these improvements, while those in their 40’s and 50’s will be more concerned about the next 20 years.  Their primary experience with the I-70 West PEIS will be in the next five years as congestion increases prior to major construction and then the fifteen year construction period. 

 

Mobility during the next 20 years will be a critical factor in their lifestyles and may ultimately determine whether or not they stay in or visit Colorado.  It may also have a serious impact on the state's tourism driven economy.

 

The effective result of the construction related mobility disruption will be a huge number of people avoiding the mountain corridor altogether during the 15 year construction period. 

 

This could have a devastating impact on the Western Slope resort communities as Utah, Wyoming, Montana and even California resorts with better access appear much more attractive to out of state and even local travelers.

 

We must pursue an alternative that will leave the current four lane I-70 highway basically intact during the fifteen year construction period.  An option must be made available to provide residents and visitors with a viable alternative to extensive construction delays before any main line I-70 highway reconstruction is initiated.  Any alternative that reconstructs the highway or builds Transit in the center median, (which requires major highway reconstruction), before a viable option for corridor capacity is made available, must be discarded due to the enormous mobility restriction during the construction period.

 

Outside from building a new East-West major four lane freeway elsewhere in the state, (alternative routes screened out earlier in the PEIS process), a high speed elevated transit system capable of being built adjacent to or further away from the I-70 highway alignment is the single best choice. 

 

An elevated guideway could have the ability to deviate from the highway alignment to reduce construction impacts to the highway.  The theory would be to build a minimally intrusive elevated transit system and keep the current four lane highway operational just as it is today during the construction of the guideway.

 

Elevated guideway construction methods could be explored that work from the elevated platform once the stanchions are placed, which would further reduce construction impact to the highway.

 

Click Here to learn about an elevated guideway solution for the mountain corridor available TODAY!

 

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More roads are not the answer!

 

Colorado's residents and businesses will take a bigger economic hit by taxing themselves to fund the billions and billions of highway expansion dollars that some Colorado officials will be proposing for a ballot initiative in 2008 or 2009.  The economic growth projected by this massive highway funding program won't pay for the highway infrastructure investment, let alone the additional investment needed for schools, fire protection, police, water and sewer infrastructure for continued auto-oriented development.

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Induced automobile dependency created by highway expansion, creates an infinite cycle of automobile dependent development, increased Vehicle Miles Traveled, increased highway congestion and the need for more highway expansion and more highway maintenance (basically the definition of insanity).

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CDOT Economic Benefits Study

Denver Metro Chamber I-70 Congestion Study

Why both studies are Wrong (Word doc)

From the Denver Metro Chamber Study:

 

Answers to I-70 congestion may require a statewide vote to approve financing authority. Yet, a December 2005 statewide survey of registered voters—commissioned by the Chamber and the Metro Denver EDC and conducted by Hill Research Consultants—found that Coloradans rank transportation and I-70 toward the bottom of the state’s priorities. Transportation results include:

 

  • 31 percent of respondents agreed that congestion limits economic activity in communities along I-70 from Denver to Grand Junction.

  • 29 percent felt that reducing traffic congestion should be a “high priority” for the legislature.

  • 19 percent gave “high priority” for the legislature to address I-70 from Denver to Grand Junction.

  • 4 percent labeled transportation and roads as a “most important” issue for the state.

  • 1 percent labeled I-70 from Denver to Grand Junction as a “most important” issue for the state.


 

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The economic studies to be presented by CDOT in 2007 should be taken only for what they are worth based on the organization that is sponsoring them.  CDOT is an organization with a 1960's highway culture and intense bias towards highway construction and highway expansion, so the outcome of these studies will suggest that highway expansion equals economic development. 

 

Of course, the studies will downplay the severe consequences of highway construction and continued auto oriented development.  Again, environmental impacts, global warming, our aging population, our dependency on foreign oil and world peak oil production will be deliberately ignored in the economic discussion by an organization fixated on highway expansion and toll roads.

 

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The taxes necessary to keep up with skyrocketing highway construction and maintenance costs will drive us all broke, but you won't hear that from some Colorado officials whose intent is to fund a giant works program for the highway industry at taxpayer expense.

 

We cannot afford the billions and billions of dollars necessary for the Owens/Norton/FHU build highways and add lanes everywhere 2030 scenario.  With Colorado's projected population growth, reducing congestion is impossible by expanding highways and increasing VMT. 

 

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By continuing Colorado's auto-oriented development patterns, today's congestion will only get worse, even if we could find tens of billions of new highway expansion dollars.  In addition, we will continue to secure our dependence on volatile foreign oil supplies and prices as well as contributing to global warming which threatens Colorado's Tourism Economy.  

 

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The reality is that Colorado's voters will never agree to tax themselves to the extent necessary to pay the astronomical costs of highway expansion.

 

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The sooner the leaders of Colorado understand that we absolutely cannot afford the Owens/Norton/FHU build highways and add lanes everywhere 2030 scenario, the sooner we will begin to actually make some progress.  Our limited transportation dollars will be much more wisely spent on TDM and TSM programs, compact land use, infill development, energy efficient mass transit development and maintenance and preservation of our existing infrastructure, including State Patrol and Public Safety Agencies that service the highways (including emergency communications). 

 

The highway expansion and highway maintenance bottomless money pit will never get filled.  It would actually be more cost effective to simply put potentially developable land into agricultural or open space use rather than paying the outrageous cost of the transportation, school, water and sewer infrastructure to support continued auto-oriented growth.  

 


 

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What are Colorado's Overall Transportation Objectives?


Do they represent a sustainable solution?

Do they agree with the Ritter Administration's Colorado Promise?


Governor Ritter’s Colorado Promise
Transportation 

We must always consider the impact that transportation projects have on the environment.

 

We must design projects that improve mobility, honor the environment and protect the livability of adjacent communities.

 


Governor Ritter’s Colorado Promise

New Energy Economy

 

Leading Colorado Towards Self-Sufficiency

 

-           Alternate Energy Promotion

 

-           Cleaner ways of extracting and using fossil fuels

-           Rewarding Efficiency and Conservation


Governor Ritter’s Colorado Promise
Environment

 

-  Protection of Water Quality

 

-  Protection of Air Quality 

 

-  Protection of Colorado’s Wilderness areas,

    Waterways and Wildlife habitats

 

“We also owe it to future generations - generations of Coloradans we will never meet –

to protect our natural resources, our water supplies and our crisp mountain air.”

 

“We must protect the quality of our air with a greater emphasis on mass transit, renewable energy, new clean coal technologies and more thoughtful growth strategies.”

 

Protection of water quality is essential to the health of our citizens, the strength of our economy and the preservation of our quality of life.

 


Governor Ritter’s Colorado Promise

New Energy Economy

 

Do Our Part to Reduce Global Warming Trends

We can no longer talk about energy without acknowledging the effects of our energy production and use on our environment.

 

We are not talking about just global warming; we are talking about “local” warming.


 

One could easily argue that continued highway expansion and continued automobile dependent development is exactly the opposite of the Ritter New Energy Policy. 

 

Increased funding to add highway capacity, increase Vehicle Miles Traveled, increase fuel consumption, increase greenhouse gas emissions, increase regional haze and other harmful environmental impacts, only increases the demand for more highway maintenance and increases automobile dependent development and sprawl.

 

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Here is an example of the Highway Expansion bias in much of Colorado's Transportation documentation.

 

1.  The word "Transportation" is synonymous with the word "Highways" (they are used interchangeably).

 

2.  Transportation funding (a.k.a., Highway funding) is imperative to Colorado's economic development.  Move Colorado is an advocate for economic development through its advocacy for Transportation funding (i.e. Highway funding) but does not not consider any of the negative economic impacts of highway expansion.

 

3.  Note no mention of  the role that land use, auto-oriented development and sprawl play in the congestion equation.

 

4.  Note the primary focus of the Colorado transportation funding discussion:

     a.  fiscal restructuring

     b.  alternative revenues

     c.  tolling

     d.  leveraging resources

(where is multi-modal transportation solutions?)

 

5.  Note no mention the negative impacts of Highway Expansion such as:

     a.  Harmful environmental Impacts

     b.  Harmful economic impacts

     c.  Continued auto-dependent development and sprawl

     d.  Induced vehicular travel (expansion generated traffic)

     e.  Increased Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Global Climate Change

     f.   Increased dependency on foreign oil and the worldwide political
          instability that it causes

     g.  Increased national security costs associated with protecting our
          access to the world's decreasing oil supplies

     h.  The impact of the looming liquid fuels crisis

 

At least two questions must be answered to understand the relationship between "economic benefits" and highway expansion.

1.  Can we afford continued highway expansion and auto-dependent development?

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The Denver Regional Council of Governments staff has already helped us in answering these questions.  Although perhaps not unequivocally, their answers and research have provided valuable insight into the relationship between development and transportation. 

From their recent Scenario Planning Exercise:

 

Additionally, the UGB/A Policy Committee did not have the findings of the Scenario Modeling effort conducted in the fall of 2006 at their disposal when they offered their recommendation. Summarizing this modeling effort, a scenario that assumed no increase in the UGB/A beyond the 2030 total showed the best values on all indicators for the three land use scenarios.
A scenario that used the original 70 sq. mi. addition to the UGB/A demonstrated only comparable travel delay times and only after the addition of $8 billion of regional highway improvements.

Here is the simplified version of this statement.

 

DRCOG staff modeled two different Metro area year 2035 land use scenarios that predicted Daily Vehicle Hours of Delay (Congestion) for both. 

 

The first scenario used the same urbanized area number (in square miles) that is assumed in the Metro Vision 2030 plan, for the year 2035 (urbanized area is defined by a residential density of more than one residence per acre). 

 

The second scenario added 70 square miles to the metro region urbanized area for the year 2035.

 

The model indicates that year 2035 congestion resulting from a 70 square mile urbanized area expansion over the year 2030 urbanized area, would require an additional $8 billion in regional highway capacity improvements to lower the congestion level equal to a 2035 model with no urbanized area expansion.

 

Bottom line: 

$114,300,000 in regional highway capacity investment is required for every square mile of urbanized area expansion to maintain the same level of congestion as no urban expansion (in the Denver Metro area in 2035).

 

There is a substantial relationship between urbanized area expansion and highway spending in order to just minimize congestion increases.  The cost of the highway infrastructure investment alone to mitigate congestion would be a crushing burden for Colorado's taxpayers and doesn't include the public infrastructure dollars for schools, water and sewer services, and public safety services such as police and fire protection.

The DRCOG modeling effort would suggest that the Blue Ribbon Transportation Panel, Move Colorado and CDOT cannot consider transportation funding by itself.  Clearly, the way in which Colorado grows over the next 30 years is just as important (if not more important) than how much additional transportation dollars we can raise. Smart Growth strategies that minimize urbanized area growth by providing incentives for infill, compact, mixed use, senior, pedestrian, bicycle and transit friendly development could save Colorado's taxpayers billions in highway spending.  

One would hope that the Blue Ribbon Panel is equally focused on growth strategies as they are on securing additional transportation funds.

 

2.  What is the economic benefit of highway expansion?

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The economic development and quality of life improvements from adding capacity to existing highways is debatable at best. 

While automobile use often increases with economic development, this occurs because wealth allows more driving, not that increased driving leads to wealth.

With a mature highway system, it may be better to increase transportation diversity and encourage efficiency rather than continuing to expand highway capacity.  Today the most cost effective highways have already been built.  Expanding highways is now very expensive, since they are often located in constrained areas, (physically confined by the natural or built environments).  The return on investment for incremental increases in highway capacity may be only marginal, if at all.  New highway investment in well developed areas does not have a major impact on economic growth.  In particular, the impact of the highway expansion can harm the area in question.

High levels of per capita automobile use are found to increase the portion of regional wealth devoted to roads and commuting, increase per capita accidents, and reduce the efficiency of transit service. 

 

This research indicates that automobile dependency reduces economic development and competitiveness by increasing transportation costs, particularly since such expenditures tend to divert large amounts of capital from more economically productive uses, and increase the consumption of imported goods (vehicles and fuel).

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Some people want to return to traditional planning practices that favor automobile travel and ignore other planning objectives. They advocate highway expansion to reduce congestion. Their analysis tends to:

- Exaggerate highway expansion congestion reduction impacts and
  economic benefits.

- Ignore or understate generated traffic and induced travel effects.

- Overlook many economic, social and environmental costs of wider
  highways, increased vehicle traffic and sprawled land use.

- Underestimate the true costs of expanding major urban highways.

- Fail to compare highway expansion with other transportation improvement
  options.

 

Colorado's voting public is being told to assume that the only way to avoid economic disaster is to spend countless billions of dollars on highway infrastructure.   The truth is that a massive highway expansion plan is a certain path to economic and environmental disaster. 

 

Continued highway expansion ignores the most harmful impacts such as continuing the cycle of auto-dependent, auto-oriented sprawl, our addiction to foreign oil, increased greenhouse gas emissions, continued water quality degradation by the use of more and more chemical deicers and traction sand, continued air quality and regional haze degradation and related health problems, increasing vehicle - animal collisions, increasing vehicle accidents and fatalities, increasing energy

costs and increasing global warming. 

 

Not only will future oil shortages drive skyrocketing liquid fuel costs, but the oil for asphalt overlays and other highway repairs will become increasingly more expensive and drive highway maintenance and repair costs sky high as well.

 

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Continued highway expansion does not represent a sustainable solution for Colorado.  Instead it represents a self serving works program that only benefits the ill-fated legacy of the Owens/Norton Regime and the pro-oil position of the Bush/Cheney Administration.  

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Courtesy of the Victoria Transport Policy Institute:

Highway Expansion Costs
Highway expansion advocates generally ignore or severely understate generated traffic and induced travel impacts. 

For example, Cox and Pisarski (2004) use a model that only accounts for diverted traffic (trips shifted in time or route) but ignores shifts in mode, destination or trip frequency, and Hartgen and Fields (2006) assume that generated traffic would fill just 15% of added roadway capacity, which is unrealistically low when extremely congested roads are expanded.

 

They also ignore the incremental costs that result from induced vehicle travel, such as increased downstream traffic congestion, road and parking costs, accidents and pollution emissions. They claim that roadway capacity expansion reduces fuel consumption, pollution emissions and accidents, because they measure impacts per vehicle-mile and ignore the increased vehicle miles.

 

As a result they significantly exaggerate roadway expansion benefits and understate total costs.

 

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Courtesy of the Victoria Transport Policy Institute:

Economic Value of Roadway Expansion

Advocates claim that highway expansion provides huge economic benefits, but their economic analysis is faulty.

 

If roadway capacity expansion significantly increased economic productivity this effect would be easy to measure, but numerous studies show that economic returns on highway expansion investments are modest and declining (Boarnet and Haughwout, 2000; Shirley and Winston, 2004).

 

Figure 5 shows how highway investments provided high annual economic returns during the 1950s and 60s, far higher than returns on private capital, but these declined to below that of private capital investments by the 1980s. This is what economic theory would predict, since the most cost-effective investments have already been made, so more recent projects provide less value at a higher cost.

 

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To the degree that highway expansion induces additional vehicle travel and stimulates sprawl it tends to be economically harmful since this increases public infrastructure and service costs and shifts consumer expenditures to goods that provide relatively small regional business activity and employment. Other congestion reduction strategies provide more positive economic impacts.

 

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While automobile use often increases with economic development, this occurs because wealth allows more driving, not that increased driving leads to wealth.

 

Many roadway improvement benefits are economic transfers, rather than true net benefits. A new highway intersection may attract businesses to a specific location, but this may simply represents a shift of economic activity from one location to another, rather than true economic development.

 

Of course, if business activity shifts to another region, then one jurisdiction may enjoy economic benefits but at the expense of the other jurisdiction.

 

Highway expansion advocates understate the true costs of the projects they propose. For example, Cox and Pisarski (2003) assume that highway widening costs would average $3 million per lane-mile for arterials and $6 million per lane-mile for freeways, and Hartgen and Fields (2006) assumes that severely congested highways could be expanded for $3.8 million per lane-mile on average, although these projects are mostly in dense urban areas, often requiring land acquisition, complex intersections, bridges, tunneling and community mitigation, plus the delay costs during project construction.

 

Many recent urban highway projects have much higher unit costs. Of 36 highway projects studied by the Washington State Department of Transportation 13 of them had costs in excess of $10 million per lane mile (WSDOT, 2005). Future projects are likely to have higher unit costs since most jurisdictions have already implemented the cheapest highway projects, and both construction costs and urban land values have increased much faster than inflation in recent years.

 

As an analogy, consider the role laxatives should play relieving constipation. Laxatives are sometimes appropriate, but it is generally best to address constipation by changing diet (more fiber and liquids) and exercise (take a walk), because laxatives’ effectiveness declines with frequent use, they can hide more severe diseases, and they can exacerbate other medical problems. A physician who prescribes laxatives without investigating why the patient is constipated or considering other solutions is guilty of malpractice.

 

Similarly, chronic traffic congestion is often a symptom of more fundamental community design problems, such as inadequate mobility options that force people to drive for every trip, and dispersed land use patterns that increase travel distances. Where this is true, expanding roads may reduce short term symptoms but exacerbate long term problems.

 

Although roadway projects (particularly safety and reliability improvements) can be an appropriate part of a city’s transport program, continually expanding congested highways tends to be inefficient. The first highways in an area often provide large economic returns, but marginal benefits diminish as more capacity is added for the following reasons:

 

The first highways projects are generally the most cost effective, because planners are smart enough to prioritize investments. For example, if there are several possible highway alignments on a corridor, those with the greatest benefits and lowest costs are generally built first, leaving less cost effective options for subsequent implementation.

 

Interregional highways (those connecting cities) are generally constructed first. They tend to provide greater economic benefits and have lower unit costs than local highway expansion, due to numerous conflicts and high land costs in urban areas.

 

Adding capacity tends to provide declining user benefits, since consumers are smart enough to prioritize trips. For example, if highways are congested, consumers organize their lives to avoid peak automobile period trips. As highway capacity increases they travel more during peak periods, perhaps driving across town during rush hour for an errand that would be deferred, or moving further away from their worksite. Each additional vehicle mile provides smaller user benefits, since the most valued vehicle-miles are already taken.

 

The main transport problems in most urban communities are traffic congestion, inadequate mobility for non-drivers, and various costs associated with increasing motor vehicle traffic, including road and parking facility costs, accidents and pollution emissions, all problems reduced with improved travel options, more efficient travel behavior, and more accessible land use development.

 

With a mature highway system, it may be better to increase transport diversity and encourage efficiency rather than continuing to expand capacity.

 


Courtesy of the Victoria Transport Policy Institute:


Urban Highway Expansion Costs

Highway expansion advocates understate the true costs of the projects they propose.

 

For example, Cox and Pisarski (2003) assume that highway widening costs would average $3 million per lane-mile for arterials and $6 million per lane-mile for freeways, and Hartgen and Fields (2006) assumes that severely congested highways could be expanded for $3.8 million per lane-mile on average, although these projects are mostly in dense urban areas, often requiring land acquisition, complex intersections, bridges, tunneling and community mitigation, plus the delay costs during project construction.

 

Many recent urban highway projects have much higher unit costs, as illustrated in Figure 6.

 

Of 36 highway projects studied by the Washington State Department of Transportation 13 of them had costs in excess of $10 million per lane mile (WSDOT, 2005). Future projects are likely to have higher unit costs since most jurisdictions have already implemented the cheapest highway projects, and both construction costs and urban land values have increased much faster than inflation in recent years.

 

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Conclusions

Modern transportation planning considers a wider range of impacts and options than was previously common, which supports policies and programs that improve transport options, encourage more efficient travel patterns, and increase land use accessibility.

 

These provide multiple benefits. Some people want to return to traditional planning practices that favor automobile travel and ignore other planning objectives. They advocate highway expansion to reduce congestion.

 

Traditional Planning Analysis tends to:

Exaggerate highway expansion congestion reduction impacts and economic benefits.

Ignore or understate generated traffic and induced travel effects.

Overlook many economic, social and environmental costs of wider highways, increased vehicle traffic and sprawled land use.

 

Underestimate the true costs of expanding major urban highways.

 

Fail to compare highway expansion with other transportation improvement options.

 

Some of these errors are subtle, technical, and even counter-intuitive.

 

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It is therefore important that decision makers and the general public become informed about issues such as the implications of different congestion indicators, the impacts of generated traffic and induced travel, the economic returns on roadway capacity expansion, and more comprehensive planning techniques. 

 

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Courtesy of the Victoria Transport Policy Institute:

Impacts of Roadway Investments

Automobiles are the dominant transport mode in most areas, but this does not mean that roadway projects are always the best way to improve transport. Automobile travel is already convenient and inexpensive to most destinations, and fast, provided that you do not try to travel under peak conditions.

 

The major transport problems facing society consist of peak congestion, motor vehicle crash risk and pollution, and inadequate mobility for non-drivers, all of which can be addressed by demand management.

 

Highway, shipping, trucking and automobile industry representatives often argue that transportation makes a unique contribution to economic development, with the implication that these industries deserve favorable public policies, such as subsidies and low taxes (AASHTO, 1998; Jacoby, 1999).

 

But simply calculating the contribution of transportation to economic activity indicates little about the economic development impacts of a particular planning decision.

 

That transportation is essential to economic activity does not mean that more transportation is necessarily better, that roadway projects are optimal investments, or that underpricing is justified. Economic analysis must reflect net marginal benefits, that is, the incremental benefits of an additional unit of transport activity, taking into account both costs and benefits.

 

Under some circumstances, highway investments provide significant economic productivity benefits by reducing transportation costs (Hodge, Weisbrod and Hart, 2003). Highway improvements support economic development if inadequate roads are a constraint to economic activity, and new business activity can be attracted to an area.

 

For example, Weiss (1999) and Horst and Moore (2003) show that rural areas with good highway access experienced more employment growth, poverty alleviation and industrial diversity than areas that lack such access.

 

But this does not prove that every highway project provides economic development benefits, or that highway improvements provide greater economic development benefits than other transport improvements or the same funds spent on other community development strategies, such as improved education.


Highway improvements are only likely to increase economic development if other conditions are ripe and transport costs are a significant economic constraint.

Building the first highway to a region is likely to provide economic development, but once a region has a basic paved road system, additional roadway capacity provides relatively small economic development benefits (SACTRA, 1999).

 

Much of the economic impacts that do occur when highways are upgraded tend to be economic transfers, economic activity shifted from one location to another without overall gain (CBP, 2002; Baird, 2005). Increased highway capacity often provides economic benefits in one part of a region at the expense of other areas (Boarnet and Haughwout, 2000; Chalermpong, 2004).

 

Some studies suggest that highway investments which stimulate urban sprawl are economically harmful (Land Use Impacts). Nelson and Moody (2000) evaluate the association between beltways and retail/service activity among 44 metropolitan areas in the United States. After controlling for other factors, statistical analysis indicates that metropolitan areas with one or more belt-ways fared less well in sales per capita than metropolitan areas with no beltways and metropolitan areas with one beltway fared better than those with two or more.

 

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The reason is that beltways deconcentrate metropolitan populations to levels that prevent the creation of trade areas sufficient to support retail and service firms at the margins.

 

There is considerable evidence that the incremental economic benefit of additional roadway capacity is declining in developed countries (Helling, 1997; Goodwin and Persson, 2001; Shirley and Winston, 2004).

 

Although highways showed high annual return on investment during the 1960s (0.54), this declined significantly by 1991 (0.09), and is likely to continue to decline since the most cost effective projects have been implemented (CBO, 1998).

 

Table 5 shows how highway investments showed high annual economic returns during the 1950s and 60s, far higher than returns on private capital, but the rates of return declined to below that of private capital investments by the 1980s, and these trends are likely to continue, since the most cost-effective investments have already been made.

Table 5  Annual Rate of Return (Nadri and Mamuneas, 1996)

 

Highway Capital

Private Capital

Total 1950-1989

28%

13%

1950-59

35%

13%

1960-69

35%

14%

1970-79

16%

12%

1980-89

10%

11%

 

Shirley and Winston (2004) studied how infrastructure investment, both within each plant’s state and across state lines, affected inventory and logistics costs at tens of thousands of industrial facilities, holding constant other influences like interest rates and changing inventory practices. They found that infrastructure spending reduced costs and increased productivity, but the rate of return declined significantly over time, from more than 15% annual return in the 1970’s to less than 5% in the 1980’s and 1990’s.

 

“By the late 1970’s, the Interstate highway system was substantially completed,” the economists write. “During the past two decades, the primary objective of highway spending has shifted from expanding the nation's capital stock to maintaining it. Undoubtedly, the improvement in costs and service from such investments and the concomitant reduction in plants’ inventories cannot compare with those produced by the construction of thousands of miles of new roads.”

 

Similarly, a study (Smith, et al, 2002) found that building new highways had a major effect on land development patterns in the Twin Cities region during the 1970s, but once a basic highway system was built, adding more roadway capacity provides less additional residential, commercial or industrial development in an area.

 

Other transportation improvements, such as public transit investments and TDM programs that result in more efficient use of existing roadway capacity, can provide greater economic benefits than increased roadway capacity (Boarnet, 1999; Cambridge Systematics, 1999).

 

Regions that invest heavily in road capacity expansion fared little better in reducing traffic congestion than those that invested much less (STPP, 1998).

 

Thousands of dollars would need to be spent annually per household to increase roadway capacity enough to simply maintain current congestion levels. TDM strategies that reduce congestion and improve access at lower cost to society can increase economic development.

 

A recent expert review of economic impact research (SACTRA, 1999) finds:

 

·        “The available evidence does not support arguments that new transport investment in general has a major impact on economic growth in a country with an already well-developed infrastructure. At the regional and local level, in particular, the issue of impact is made more complex by the possibility that changes in quality of access can either benefit or harm the area in question. We do not accept the results of macroeconomic studies which purport to identify very large returns from infrastructure investment. We are at present unpersuaded by the size of the impact of transport on jobs claimed by a number of European studies.”

 

·        Transportation investments may have broad economic impacts, but these can be either positive or negative. For example, a road improvement can lead to residents traveling elsewhere for shopping and services, reducing business in that community. 

 

·        Traffic reduction strategies can also achieve economic benefits by using existing capacity more efficiently. Travel demand management (including road pricing or improvements in alternative travel modes) should be considered as alternatives to capacity expansion. 

 



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Courtesy of the Victoria Transport Policy Institute:

Economic Development Impacts of Automobile Expenditures

The automobile industry is a major economic sector, so many people assume that vehicle ownership and use stimulate economic development. However, it is production and export of goods that supports economic development, not consumption. Expenditures on automobiles and fuel provide far less regional economic development or employment than expenditures on most other goods.

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The automobile industry is now overcapitalized. World vehicle production capacity is expected to exceed demand by 30% or more over the next few years.  As a result, automobile manufacturing is less profitable than many other industries and may become even less profitable in the future. Although the automobile industry was once a leader in providing good wages, benefits and local taxes, this is no longer true.

 

Many other industries now pay comparable or better wages, and manufacturers demand various financial incentives from governments (tax rebates, infrastructure expenditures and training programs) in exchange for locating industrial facilities in a jurisdiction that absorb much of their regional economic benefits.

 

Expenditures on automobiles and fuel provide little regional economic activity because they are capital intensive and mostly imported from other regions.  A 1999 Texas case study used national input-output table data to calculate the regional economic activity and employment generated by expenditures on automobile use, transit use, and general consumer expenditures.  

 

It found that each 1% of regional travel (53 million vehicle miles) shifted from automobile to public transit increases regional income by about $2.9 million (about 5˘ per mile shifted), resulting in 226 additional regional jobs. The impacts are summarized in Table 3.

 

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Automobile dependency benefits some industries at the expense of others, as summarized in Table 5. Only if “Better Off” firms provide more regional economic activity or employment than those in “Worse Off” might automobile dependency support economic development. There is little evidence that automobile and truck dependent industries provide more economic benefits than other industries.

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Some people might argue that these regional economic losses may be offset by national economic development gains if vehicles and petroleum are produced in other areas of a country. However, both the automobile and petroleum industries have low labor input, and a significant portion of their input value is imported at the national level. Even if cars are assembled in a country, many of their parts are imported.

 

Although economic losses may be smaller in a country that produces vehicles and fuel, expenditures on these goods appear to be far less beneficial to both the regional and national economy than most other consumer expenditures.

 

This analysis shows that expenditures on automobile travel provide much less economic development and employment than most other consumer goods, and far less than public transit expenditures. This indicates that automobile dependency is likely to have significant negative regional economic impacts, and policy changes that encourage more balanced transportation and reduce total transportation costs are likely to increase economic development and employment.

 


Courtesy of the Victoria Transport Policy Institute:

Economic Development Impacts of Automobile Dependency

Automobile dependency has various impacts that affect economic development. These are summarized below.

 

1. Increased Mobility And Convenience For Motorists

Automobile dependency directly benefits vehicle users: favorable pricing, investment, facility design, parking and land use practices make driving relatively fast, convenient and affordable. It also allows businesses to use more centralized distribution systems and Just-In-Time production, and to access a wider range of possible employees and customers, which can cause certain types of agglomeration efficiencies, such as large retail centers.

 

These savings and efficiencies can increase economic development if they increase the productivity of local industries. These productivity benefits are separate and in addition to consumer benefits from increased mobility.

 

However, not all increased vehicle use by producers represents increased productivity. As automobile dependent transportation systems and land use patterns require more travel to provide a given level of services.

 

2. Increased Vehicle And Fuel Expenditures

Automobile dependency increases per capita vehicles and fuel expenditures, often increasing average annual household transportation expenditures by thousands of dollars, and reduces expenditures on other consumer goods.

 

This can have significant economic impacts, particularly because most vehicles and fuel are imported from other regions.

 

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3. Increased Road And Parking Expenditures

Automobile dependency increases expenditures on roads, traffic services and parking facilities, often averaging hundreds of dollars annually per household. Annual per capita road expenditures average $264 in automobile dependent U.S. cities, $135 in less automobile dependent European cities, and only $88 in the least automobile dependent Asian cities, representing savings in both absolute terms and as a portion of Gross Regional Product.

 

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4. Increased Traffic Congestion, Crash Damages And Environmental Impacts

Increased automobile travel tends to increase total traffic congestion delays, crashes and environmental impacts such as air pollution and impervious surface coverages. Although some impacts may be relatively low per kilometer in automobile dependent areas (for example, traffic congestion is often high in older, multi-modal cities, and per kilometer crash rates are often high in developing countries where automobile ownership is low), total costs per capita tend to be higher due to high levels of vehicle use.

 

These costs can reduce regional productivity: Traffic congestion reduces the efficiency of businesses and services that involve local travel. Crash damage costs are borne directly through increased insurance fees and lost worker productivity, and indirectly through taxes to cover injuries and disabilities.

 

Environmental damages can cause illnesses and disabilities, and degrades environmental amenities that have market value to real estate and tourism industries.

 

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5. Automobile-Oriented Land Use

Automobile dependency has many land use impacts: buildings become lower and wider, building are separated from each other and sidewalks by parking lots, activity centers (businesses and other public facilities) are located along arterials and highway intersections rather than in clusters and traditional commercial centers, and large areas are devoted to single uses (for example, residential areas may lack retail businesses and public services). Automobile dependency also increases the amount of land that is paved for roads and parking facilities.

 

These impacts have several costs that affect economic productivity and development. They can increase the total amount of vehicle travel required for access, increasing travel time and vehicle expenses. They reduce the amount of land available for other productive uses and increase the costs of providing utilities, public services and stormwater management.

 

6. Reduced Travel Choices

Automobile dependency reduces the quantity and quality of transportation choices. At the street level, increased automobile traffic makes walking and cycling more difficult and unpleasant. As middle-class consumers drive more and depend less on other modes there is less political support for these alternatives. As demand for public transit decreases service quality declines.

 

Although most automobile dependent communities subsidize public transit, such subsidies cannot offset the structural inefficiencies of operating public transit in unsuitable conditions. In addition to the direct costs and inequity that this reduction in mobility choices imposes on non-drivers, it can also reduce economic productivity if it limits access to education and jobs.

 

In automobile dependent areas, a lack of travel choices for non-drivers can be a major barrier for welfare-to-work efforts, and for many employers who rely on lower-income workers who often have limited access to an automobile.

 

In summary, automobile dependency has both positive and negative economic development impacts. Benefits are associated with more efficient local travel that affects productivity and some retail efficiencies. Offsetting these are various inefficiencies and increased costs that are borne throughout the economy. By creating more dispersed land use patterns, fewer travel alternatives and a more travel intensive economy, a portion of the increased mobility is offset by reduced access: more driving is needed to reach goods and activities. This offsets the productivity benefits of increased mobility.

 

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When will we wake up?

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Courtesy of the Victoria Transport Policy Institute:

What is Sustainable Transportation?

Sustainability has significant implications for transportation planning, since transport activities tend to be highly resource intensive, have numerous external costs, and frequently distribute impacts inequitably. Sustainable transportation requires using each mode for what it does best, which typically means greater reliance on non-motorized for local travel, increased use of public transit in urban areas, and a reduction (but not elimination) of personal automobile use.

 

Sustainable planning challenges the assumption that increased vehicle travel reflects legitimate consumer demand, since consumers lack viable alternatives and markets are distorted in ways that underprice driving. While the first increment of motor vehicle travel (measured for example, as average per capita vehicle miles) may provide significant benefits to society, marginal benefits tend to decline with increased use.

 

Doubling mileage does not double benefits for the simple reason that consumers select their most valuable trips first.

 

Sustainable planning focuses on outcomes, such as the quality of access (the ability to obtain desired goods, services, and activities), rather than simply measuring quantity of mobility (such as travel speed or total mileage). Mobility is seldom an end in itself. Even recreational travel usually has a destination. Increased movement is not necessarily beneficial, it may indicate inefficiencies that require more travel to meet needs.

 

John Whitelegg states, “It is the ease of access to other people and facilities that determines the success of a transportation system, rather than the means or speed of transport. It is relatively easy to increase the speed at which people move around, much harder to introduce changes that enable us to spend less time gaining access to the facilities that we need.”

 

Only by measuring transport in terms of access can options that reduce the need for travel (such as telecommuting and more efficient land use) be properly evaluated. The disciplines of geography and urban economics often measure access, but the analysis tends to be theoretical. The professions that implement transport policies – transport planners and traffic engineers – tend to measure vehicle movement, using indicators such as level of service (LOS), V/C ratios, congestion delay, and average vehicle speeds.

 

These are inappropriate because:

 

It is impossible build enough urban road and parking capacity to satisfy
  potential demand.

 

Motor vehicles impose significant economic, environmental, and social costs.

 

Some people cannot own or drive a motor vehicle.

 

Sustainable transportation requires fundamental changes in our transportation planning practices. It demands more comprehensive analysis of impacts (including consideration of indirect and cumulative impacts) and consideration of a broader range of solutions than usually occurs. It also requires that the public be involved in determining alternatives to be considered and evaluation criteria. Those are principles of good planning that are particularly necessary for sustainability planning.

 

Sustainable transportation planning requires public involvement for two reasons. First, because sustainable development reflects a community’s values, the public must be effectively involved at each stage of the planning process. Second, because sustainable transportation often involves changes in community design and residents’ behavior, residents need to feel a stake in decisions if they are to be implemented effectively.

 

Modern transportation planning considers a wider range of impacts and options than was previously common, which supports policies and programs that improve transport options, encourage more efficient travel patterns, and increase land use accessibility.

 

These provide multiple benefits. Some people want to return to traditional planning practices that favor automobile travel and ignore other planning objectives. They advocate highway expansion to reduce congestion.

 

Some of these errors are subtle, technical, and even counter-intuitive.

 

Sustainable development requires that individual transport decisions be subordinate to a community’s long-term strategic objectives. Transport planners must recognize that their decisions can create self-fulfilling prophecies. For example, increasing highway capacity can stimulate automobile-dependent transport and land use patterns, while investments in transit, pedestrian and bicycle facilities can help create multi-modal transportation systems.

 

Transportation professionals have just as much reason to object to decisions that create automobile dependent land use patterns as they would to the closure of a highway lane or a reduction in transit service, since all result in reduced access.

 

Transportation planners and engineers receive professional rewards for implementing capacity expansion projects, but are seldom rewarded for finding ways to avoid the need for such projects. Demand management tends to involve skills such as education and marketing that are not traditionally valued in transportation agencies.

 

Sustainable planning requires that transportation professionals shift from being traffic engineers concerned only with vehicle flow, into “public space architects” concerned with balancing diverse and often conflicting uses of road environments.

 

Streets are more than just conduits for vehicle traffic, they are part of the public realm, where people meet and interact. Roadway design must not focus on traffic movement objectives at the expense of non-moving and slow-moving uses of streetscapes.

 

Traffic engineers traditionally describe any increase in road or parking facility capacity as an “improvement,” although from many perspectives (pedestrians, residents, aesthetics, environmental quality) it may represent degradation. Sustainable transport planning avoids language biased in favor of automobile travel, as described in the box below.

 

Example

Traffic volumes are increasing on a highway between a city and a suburb. Planners extrapolate the growth rate to predict extreme levels of future congestion. They evaluate two solutions: widen the highway or build a rail transit line, each of which could carry 3,000 peak-period commuters. The highway project is predicted to cost $250 million, while a rail option costs $300 million. The planners therefore conclude that the highway investment is most cost effective. However, such an analysis is incomplete and fails to identify the socially optimal option.

 

First, such predictions of traffic growth are fundamentally flawed. Most traffic models predict future traffic assuming minimal congestion and free roads and parking. This is equivalent to asking how much food a nice restaurant could give away. The results are self-fulfilling outcomes, as increased capacity encourages increased driving which creates “demand” for increased capacity. Travel demand should always be evaluated as a function instead of a point estimate.

 

Rather than reporting, “Over the next decade traffic is predicted to increase 20%,” transport planners should state, “Over the next decade traffic is predicted to grow 20% at current user costs, it will grow 10% if user costs increase by 25%, and there would be no growth if user costs increase by 50%.”

 

This allows evaluation of pricing strategies (parking charges, road tolls, distance-based insurance, etc.) to address traffic problems.

 

Traffic modeling often ignores the tendency of traffic congestion to maintain a self limiting equilibrium. As roadways become more congested, motorists adjust by shifting their travel times and destinations, if capacity is expanded motorists take more peak period trips.

 

Modeling that fails to take this into account tends to overpredict future congestion, and overestimates the benefits of roadway capacity expansion.

 

Second, the analysis focuses on agency financial costs, while ignoring other important impacts. For example, 3,000 automobile commuters require 3,000 parking spaces, a cost that is avoided if the trips are made by other modes.

Additional automobile commuters increase surface street traffic, so there may be additional costs to deal with “downstream” congestion. The analysis assumed that each commuter has an automobile that will simply sit unused if they use public transit. Accident, pollution and sprawl costs are also ignored.

 

Third, the analysis is not based on a strategic community plan. Increasing highway capacity tends to make a community more automobile dependent and encourages low density, automobile oriented land use. A major transit investment can provide a catalyst for developing a multi-modal transportation system and higher density, mixed-use development. A transit option may therefore be favored if it supports a community’s strategic vision, even if it costs more from a narrow perspective.

 

Sustainable development requires significant changes in our transportation system to increase economic efficiency, equity, and environmental security.

 

This cannot be achieved simply by changing vehicle designs or improving traffic flow. It requires changing the way transportation professionals approach problems, and how individuals behave as citizens and consumers.

 

The bad news is that there are many barriers to these changes. For all its faults, our current transportation system provides a high degree of mobility to most users, particularly for the classes of people who are most influential in public decision making.

 

Many industries benefit directly from our transportation system’s inefficiencies. Most North Americans have had little experience with healthy communities that are not highly automobile dependent. As a result, there is resistance to change.

 

The good news, in terms of achieving more sustainable transportation, is that the marginal benefits of increased driving are diminishing. Most people have little desire to spend more time in their cars, drive further, or devote more resources to vehicles, roads and parking. Increasing roadway capacity is increasingly expensive. It is possible to justify significant progress toward more sustainable transportation based on conventional economic arguments and informed self-interest.

 

Transportation professionals can contribute by becoming familiar with the full costs of transportation and alternative transport strategies. We can work to create institutions and policies that are less biased in favor of automobiles and urban sprawl. We can develop professional rewards for creating more efficient transportation systems.

 

Transportation professionals do not need to work for these changes alone.

 

Other stakeholders – local officials, businesses, neighborhoods, public health advocates, social equity activists, and environmentalists – also have reasons to support sustainable transportation strategies. There are opportunities to develop coalitions to achieve sustainable transportation objectives.


Courtesy of the Victoria Transport Policy Institute:
 

Implications and Conclusions

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Automobile dependency consists of high levels of automobile use, automobile-oriented land use patterns, and limited travel alternatives. Automobile-dependency can impose significant economic, social and environmental costs. Automobile dependency can cost an average household thousands of dollars per year, and increases problems such as congestion, road and parking facility costs, crash damages and environmental degradation. Automobile-dependent transportation and land use patterns reduce access, which increases the amount of vehicle travel required to maintain a given level of productivity, and reduces travel alternatives, making non-drivers worse off in absolute and relative terms. These costs are disperse through the economy and can reduce productivity.

 

It would be difficult to underestimate the economic and social benefits of basic access, that is, the ability of people and industry to reach the goods, services and activities they need. To the degree that automobile use provides basic access it supports economic and social development. But additional automobile use provides little economic development, and is economically inefficient to the degree that it results from market distortions.

 

There is both theoretical and empirical evidence that excessive automobile dependency reduces economic development.

 

The theoretical evidence includes the principle of diminishing marginal benefits, which means that increased driving provides ever smaller incremental benefits; the observation that a significant portion of automobile dependency can be explained by market distortions which favor automobile use; the fact that many perceived benefits of increased automobile use are economic transfers rather than true productivity gains; and the tendency of automobile dependency to create less efficient transportation and land use patterns.

 

Empirical evidence also indicates that excessive automobile dependency reduces economic development.

 

Although automobile use often increases with wealth, there is little evidence that automobile dependency causes economic development.

 

Economic growth rates tend to be highest before a region becomes automobile dependent, after which growth rates usually decline. Automobile dependency can be considered a luxury consumer good which does not itself increase productivity or economic development. 

 

International comparisons indicate that beyond an optimum level (which appears to average about 7,500 annual kilometers of vehicle travel per capita, but may vary depending on conditions), increased driving reduces economic development. Excessive automobile dependency may reduce productivity due to increased facility costs, congestion, accidents, more dispersed land use, and less efficient travel alternatives.

 

Automobile expenditures provides less economic benefit than most other consumer purchases, and far less than public transit expenditures. This is to be expected since automobile and petroleum production are capital intensive with little labor input, and because vehicles and fuel are largely imported goods in most regions.

 

Although historically vehicle manufacturing was an important contributor to economic development in some regions, the automobile industry is now mature, not very profitable and highly competitive. Except where automobile production is already established, other industries are likely to provide greater economic returns. Economic development associated with automobile dependency results primarily from exporting vehicles and fuel.  

 

There is no indication that inceased domestic consumption of automobiles and fuel increases economic development.

 

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Regions that already have adequate paved highways are unlikely to see major economic development benefits from increased road capacity.

 

Alternative investments and management strategies that lead to more efficient use of the existing transportation system are likely to provide greater economic benefits. Many benefits associated with roadway capacity expansion are economic transfers rather than true productivity gains.

 

Roadway improvements can have negative as well as positive impacts on a local economy, for example by encouraging consumers to shop elsewhere.

 

Automobile dependency is particularly burdensome to developing countries that do not produce vehicles or petroleum. In such countries, vehicles and petroleum often account for a major portion of import value. This weakens the value of their currency and constrains investments that could increase productivity.

 

Market-based transportation reforms are likely to significantly reduce automobile dependency, increase economic development, and make consumers better off overall.

 

These include changes in transportation planning and investment practices, pricing reforms and changes in land use development policies. There is currently political and institutional resistance to such reforms, in part due to various interests that benefit directly from automobile dependency, and in part because many consumers have little experience with a balanced transportation system and are skeptical that they could benefit from less automobile use. These reforms may become more acceptable as they are better known, and as consumers realize the diminishing benefits of increased driving.

 

A number of European and Asian cities are making progress developing more balanced transportation systems and appear to be benefiting economically as a result.

 

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Traffic Congestion and Highway Construction

Economic Impacts

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Highway Expansion - Creating Tomorrows Problems Today

 

CDOT’s Draft PEIS states that traffic congestion is a major source of wasted time and loss of income (both to commuters and travelers who could be doing other things with their time).  Traffic delay while commuting to work or traveling to a recreation destination is considered a cost in terms of time taken away from other activities.  Over a period of time, this can lead to a systematic shift in flows of workers and investment capital into the region, thus negatively affecting overall trends in income, employment and population.

 

The Draft PEIS acknowledges the current economic activity throughout the mountain corridor and indicates the concentration of economic activity among the central and western corridor counties, (Eagle, Summit, Pitkin and Garfield).  The Draft PEIS indicates that these Resort Counties have the greatest share of the Mountain Corridor tourism industry and therefore would have the greatest vulnerability to commercial disruptions and loss of attractiveness arising from chronic traffic congestion and travel interruptions due to highway construction.  The Draft PEIS also indicates that these counties have the largest contingents of intercounty commuting workers, which would exacerbate the traffic problems afflicting the highway during construction periods. 

 

Finally the Draft PEIS states, “In view of the limited options available for access, and as the core destinations for out-of-state visitors, second homeowners, Front Range residents, and locals, these counties (Eagle, Summit, Pitkin and Garfield) would be particularly sensitive to the viability of I-70 as their primary means of communication and commerce for their livelihood.”  Any extended disruption of traffic flow due to highway expansion construction will have a significant economic impact on these counties.

 

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The Draft PEIS indicates that out-of-state visitors to the mountain resort area counties account for between 60 and 75 percent of total tourism spending.  Typically nonresident visitors stay longer and spend more money than in-state visitors.  Construction activities that discourage out-of-state visits to the corridor resort area counties, could have a significant impact on tourism based businesses and related tax revenues for corridor jurisdictions.

 

The effective result of the highway construction related mobility disruption could be a large number of people avoiding the mountain corridor altogether during the 15 year highway expansion period creating significant economic impacts on Western Slope and other Mountain Resort Communities. 

 

The Draft PEIS indicates that detailed evaluations of localized economic impacts due to construction activities are beyond the scope of a Tier 1 PEIS.  Unfortunately, under this assumption, the PEIS process does not take into account specific and local economic impacts during the construction of alternatives, until the final alternative is already selected.  Local economic impacts during the construction period do not play a role in the selection of the preferred alternative. 

 

Jurisdictions in the Mountain Corridor are interested in understanding the specific economic impact to their communities during an extended construction period.  Understanding these economic impacts could steer the development of the preferred alternative towards a less harmful outcome.

 

In the Draft PEIS, a nine county gross regional product analysis is provided to indicate the economic impact for the entire region during the extended construction period (Clear Creek, Park, Gilpin, Summit, Grand, Lake, Eagle, Garfield and Pitkin Counties).  The Draft PEIS does not however, show the economic impact on a county by county level during the construction period. 

 

According to Jonathan Lee of REMI, (Regional Economic Models, Inc.), JF Sato used a REMI product, Policy Insight, when they produced the economic impact analysis for the Mountain Corridor in the Draft PEIS.  This was not necessarily the most appropriate product for predicting individual jurisdictional impacts from the Draft PEIS alternatives.

 

REMI has a product called TranSight that could have been used to provide better economic impact data.  The TranSight product has far greater capabilities than the Policy Insight product.  It has the capability to consider impacts down to the individual city or county level (or any combination thereof).  It can consider the effects of emissions, safety, and fuel demand in its modeling.  It can compare the economic impacts of expanding a road system verses a transit system.   The use of this product would provide the county by county economic analysis that the affected jurisdictions are looking for during the construction period.

 

The Draft PEIS states that the residents of Clear Creek County, their visitors, businesses, governments and other institutions, and the people traveling through the county (all of them) will be affected by highway expansion construction work.  It also states that localized impacts are expected to be most prominent in Clear Creek County, however CDOT chose to avoid specific construction impact economic analysis for Clear Creek County in the Draft PEIS, even though it had been requested by Clear Creek County officials many times throughout the PEIS process.

 

You can assume that a more specific community economic analysis would make the six lane highway alternatives look worse than the elevated transit alternative, so it would appear that CDOT chose not to use the superior economic modeling tool.